Wheat hovers near 2-1/2-week low on ample global supply

Patrice Gainsbourg
Abril 20, 2017

Statewide topsoil moisture was rated 5% surplus, 66% adequate, 22% short and 8% very short. Southeast Iowa continues to have the lowest subsoil moisture levels with 30 percent rated short to very short. Progress is ahead of schedule in Texas at 60 percent planted now, but Kansas is well behind at just nine percent when the average is twice that.

Similar to the market lows last fall which came ahead of a big US crop, the market may have already "priced-in" a big South American crop, Suderman said. In the five years when the largest percentage of late planted soybean acreage, planted acreage was less than intentions in two years and exceeded intentions in three years.

Figure 1 shows how much of the winter wheat crop is rated as good or excellent at points in the growing season. Pastures have begun to show good growth with some cows and calves already turned out into fields.

Traders said the market focus remained on ample global supply despite emerging weather worries in Europe where crops face spring frosts this week on top of recent dryness. A freeze was recorded over extreme western Iowa the morning of April 11, with temperatures falling to 23 degrees F at Little Sioux and Sioux City. Wheat and soybeans also edged lower.

Warmest weather was from April 13 through April 15. Thursday afternoon highs reached 81 degrees at Donnellson and Keokuk while highs on Saturday reached 82 degrees at Donnellson, Indianola, Keosauqua and Ottumwa.

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Barrow was particularly disappointed by the manner in which Wigan conceded the first goal, saying: "We let in a really poor goal". Our away form has improved from a year ago and probably that's the key to the success we've had this season.

"We might get some isolated to scattered thunderstorms that would develop along that".

Jardon spoke with the Iowa Agribusiness Radio Network last Wednesday but another round of showers moves in Tuesday night into Wednesday for most of the state.

Oklahoma is still contending with drought conditions in eastern areas of the state, although rain did fall in much of the state. Easter Sunday, April 16, was dry statewide. Weekly rain totals varied from 0.15 inches at Lorimor in Union County to 3.94 inches at both Fairfax and Marion in Linn County. Statewide average precipitation was 1.14 inches, or almost double the weekly normal of 0.61 inch. On the other hand, a new bumper crop will further test price lows seen in recent years, he says. Texas was the furthest along, at 58% versus 42% a year ago and the 51% average.

Based on the past 20 years of data, corn planting progress as of May 21 - during the final stages of the planting efforts - should provide clear indication on which direction USA soybean acres may be headed following the March planting intentions.

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